When projecting whether teams possess the goods to make the College Football Playoff, we examine factors including schedule strength, quality of a depth chart, transfer haul, program pedigree and coaching momentum.
Every element matters, but we tend to overcomplicate this.
LSU’s Brian Kelly cut through the clutter when he boiled down the difference between college football's haves and the have nots. One factor that trumps all else:
Do you have a quarterback?
If you have a quarterback, you’ve given yourself the best shot at making the playoff.
If you don’t have a quarterback, you’re toast. See Florida State, Michigan, Auburn and others.
“If we’ve seen one thing happen this past week, the quarterback is driving this,” Kelly said while appearing on “The Paul Finebaum Show” on Monday, “whether it’s at Miami or at Vanderbilt or any of the programs that are successful right now. The quarterback is essential to drive these programs."
The quarterbacks at No. 10 LSU and No. 8 Mississippi help ensure those programs are planted in the playoff contender aisle at the season’s midpoint.
The playoff offers room for either LSU or Ole Miss. There’s probably not room for both.
Mathematically, this outcome won’t eliminate either team. In effect, though, this feels like a playoff elimination game, and it could come down to whichever quarterback fares best.
“Make no mistake about it: Jaxson Dart is driving Ole Miss,” Kelly said of the Rebels’ veteran quarterback, who leads the SEC in passing yards.
Only one opponent, Kentucky, limited Dart to fewer than 285 passing yards. Not coincidentally, Kentucky handed Ole Miss its loss. Unfortunately for Dart, he might be without his favorite target. Tre Harris, the nation's leading receiver, is dealing with a lower-leg injury.
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On the opposing sideline, quarterback Garrett Nussmeier carries LSU. He threw for a career-high 409 yards in his last game, a rout of South Alabama.
Riding a quarterback to playoff contention extends beyond the SEC.
In the Big Ten, Top 25 upstarts Indiana and Illinois possess better records and superior playoff potential than either Southern California or Michigan. That’s, in part, because Indiana’s Kurtis Rourke and Illinois’ Luke Altmyer are outperforming USC’s Miller Moss and Michigan’s quarterback du jour.
Within the ACC, surprise stories Pittsburgh and Syracuse are a combined 9-1. Their quarterbacks, Eli Holstein and Kyle McCord, rank in the top eight nationally for passing yards per game.
A top-notch quarterback won’t ensure a playoff bid, but he gives a team a chance. Shy of that, Boise State tailback Ashton Jeanty would come in handy.
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Here’s what else caught my eye in this view of college football from the “Topp Rope”:
You never know what you might get from a James Franklin news conference. This week, the Penn State coach referenced “runway length” at the airport in State College, Pennsylvania, while discussing the cross-country travel rigors for No. 5 Penn State's Big Ten game in Los Angeles against Southern California.
The Nittany Lions will depart Thursday to leave additional recovery time, in part because they can’t fly out of the State College airport. Instead, they’ll bus 100 miles to Harrisburg International Airport before making a flight that will exceed five hours to a destination three time zones away.
Franklin proposed a solution: airport expansion in State College.
“That’s one of the things we have to discuss, is increasing the size of the runway here and the size of the airport,” he said.
I would call this a classic case of football coach overreach – stick to X’s and O’s! – but I’ve experienced the grind of an eight-hour travel day. I’d wish it upon no one, certainly not anyone that must be fresh for a football game.
Rodney writes: Your take on Bama's loss at Vanderbilt is way off the mark. … This current Vandy team, with 51 new NIL players added during the offseason is absolutely NOT historic Vandy. The old Vanderbilt no longer exists. Now, due to NIL, it is Vandy on STEROIDS.
My response: Georgia State would like a word. The Panthers defeated ‘new Vandy’ just last month. Good thing for Alabama it doesn’t have to face ‘new Georgia State.’ If Alabama defenders had any clue how to defend an option play, I suspect we'd be hearing a lot less about 'new Vandy.'
Gary writes: I squarely put the blame on Josh Heupel for Tennessee's loss at Arkansas. Every year Heupel loses a game that we should have won. I think he didn't prepare enough against Arkansas and took them for granted. Where do you most put the blame?
My response: I place it on the same person as you: Josh Heupel. When a fourth-year coach loses as a 14-point favorite, point the finger at the man in charge.
Heupel's offensive guru credentials are subject to review. He cooked a tasty dish with Jeremy Pruitt’s players, but his offense doesn’t look the same without quarterback Hendon Hooker and wide receiver Jalin Hyatt, two players Pruitt fetched. Heupel’s also responsible for the inability to sustain a formidable offensive line after Pruitt’s players departed.
1. I’m starting to believe in the Heisman Trophy potential of Boise State’s Jeanty. No quarterback is running away with the award, and Jeanty's on pace to deliver the nation’s first 2,000-yard rushing season since 2019. If Boise State makes the playoff as the Group of Five qualifier, that will give hesitant voters permission to vote for Jeanty. What could foil Jeanty? A quarterback, say Alabama’s Jalen Milroe or Oregon’s Dillon Gabriel, sizzling in the second half of the season.
2. The Big Ten should qualify a minimum of three teams for the playoff, but we’ll learn more Saturday about which of the trio of No. 2 Ohio State, No. 3 Oregon and No. 5 Penn State are truly national championship contenders. The Buckeyes will play at Oregon, while Franklin’s Nittany Lions have the chance to land a playoff knockout punch on Lincoln Riley’s Trojans. Depending on how these games go, the Big Ten might have three national championship contenders by Sunday, or it could have one.
3. Consider this: If Florida upsets Tennessee on Saturday, Billy Napier would have the same 4-2 record as Heupel this season. Is it wild to think Napier can escape the hot seat? Yeah, pretty wild, but a win in Knoxville might cause the firing squad to set down their arms for a minute.
Blake Toppmeyer is the USA TODAY Network's national college football columnist. Email him at [email protected] and follow him on Twitter @btoppmeyer.
The "Topp Rope" is his football column published throughout the USA TODAY Network.
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