Stock-to-Flow Model
The Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model is a concept frequently cited in cryptocurrency analysis, particularly for predicting Bitcoin's value. Initially introduced by an anonymous analyst under the Twitter handle PlanB, the model primarily aims to predict Bitcoin's price fluctuations by measuring its scarcity to forecast its future value.
Typically used to analyze the value of precious metals like gold and silver, the S2F model's relevance extends beyond just demand impacts to their scarcity. In this model, "Stock" refers to the existing supply on the market, while "Flow" represents the annual increase in supply. By calculating the ratio of "Stock" to "Flow," a numerical value is derived that indicates the asset's scarcity. In the context of Bitcoin, a higher ratio suggests greater scarcity, and theoretically, a higher price.
BTC market cap ratio continues to climb
In 2019, Bitcoin (BTC) demonstrated outstanding market performance, significantly increasing its share of the total cryptocurrency market capitalization, thereby strengthening its leadership position in the cryptocurrency market. This phenomenon not only highlights Bitcoin's advantages over other cryptocurrencies but also underscores its role as a 'safe haven' in the crypto market.
In the 2020 cryptocurrency market outlook, market participants have widely divergent views, especially regarding whether non-Bitcoin cryptocurrencies (commonly referred to as 'altcoins') will experience a surge in value. Data from 2019 shows that very few currencies outperformed Bitcoin, highlighting Bitcoin's dominant position throughout the crypto market.
BTC cumulative fees exceed 1 billion USD
Data shows that on October 14th, BTC cumulative fees broke through 1 billion USD, which is equivalent to 18% of Western Union's revenue in 2018. This indicates that Bitcoin continues to be used over time, and its network effect is still growing.
Halving Mechanism
The BTC mining reward halving mechanism has been a hot topic in Bitcoin investment throughout 2019, with most believing that BTC will repeat historical trends and enter a bull market after production cuts. As BTC fundamentals continue to improve and begin to attract mainstream attention, the potential demand for Bitcoin still has explosive potential.
In 2019, the cryptocurrency industry survived its darkest moments and struggled forward amidst difficulties. In 2020, let us hope to witness the growth and explosion of this nascent industry together, as brighter days are soon to come.
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