Until free agency begins, NFL mock drafts are little more than an entertaining thought exercise.
But Monday's opening of the negotiating window or "legal tampering period" served as a reminder about the calendar and how much change could still be ahead. NFL teams are putting their offseason plans into action, reaching agreements before the official start of the new league year on Wednesday as they reconfigure rosters and tinker with their salary-cap standing. And while teams are still setting up moves that will further reshape the draft, the first flurry of action did help shift the outlook for several teams.
With that in mind, here's USA TODAY Sports' latest 2024 NFL mock draft after the first day of free agency:
Even with Justin Fields seemingly in limbo, there's no point in entertaining any other possibility here right now. All signs point to the Bears staying in this slot and selecting Williams, the 2022 Heisman Trophy winner and future face of a franchise. Chicago will have to find a way to harness his playmaking ability while figuring out how to get him to play on schedule more often, but that's the kind of problem this organization will gladly take on given the opportunity to change course from its woeful history behind center.
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What once looked like a relatively straightforward pick now serves as the first inflection points of this year's draft, as there could be a great debate between Daniels and Drake Maye here. For now, let's entertain the possibility that the Commanders go with Daniels. The reigning Heisman Trophy winner's knack for operating as a cool distributor from the pocket and an electric running threat outside of it makes him a fascinating potential fit for new offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury.
If new personnel chief Eliot Wolf is going to stand by his remark that New England needs to "weaponize the offense," placing Maye at the center of that effort makes a lot of sense. The 6-4, 223-pound signal-caller strikes a stark contrast from the options New England has had at quarterback in the post-Tom Brady era, as his rare arm strength and ability to throw on the move can vex opposing defenses. There's a fine mentor waiting in Jacoby Brissett, who can hold down the starting role for however long is needed before Maye or any other rookie proves capable of running the show.
For as much as things might change around Arizona, the upshot for this selection seems to remain the same. So long as Harrison is available, it should be a no-brainer for the Cardinals to take arguably this class' most complete prospect. It's only if the Patriots take the two-time unanimous All-American that things truly start to become interesting, with a trade back sizing up as the most appealing potential option.
Would Minnesota be content to trade to this spot knowing it might have to settle for its fourth choice to replace Kirk Cousins? Maybe a move wouldn't be reasonable until draft day, when general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah and Co. could see how the top few picks panned out. But going with Sam Darnold as a bridge option to start off 2024 while sitting and developing McCarthy seems like a relatively sound strategy for an organization that suddenly has had change behind center thrust upon it.
Tough break for Joe Schoen, as the top four quarterbacks and Harrison are all off the board before Big Blue gets to pick. Still, Nabers is no mere consolation prize, as he has shown he can be a go-to threat capable of bringing the big play back for Daniel Jones and a passing attack that only extends defenses so much.
Spending big on center Lloyd Cushenberry reinforced general manager Ran Carthon's commitment to running this rebuild through the offensive front. At 6-9 and 321 pounds, Alt can be a towering presence at left tackle for years to come.
Kirk Cousins' arrival allows Atlanta to turn its full attention to trying to elevate its defense, and the Falcons should have their choice here of the top players on that side of the ball. Dynamic and explosive, Turner has the physical make-up to immediately invigorate a unit that finished last in pass-rush win rate, according to ESPN.
If there's a dream scenario for Chicago, this might be it. Equipping Williams with a well-built target who can bail out his quarterback with his ball skills and body control looks like a surefire way to get this new era off to a solid start.
A reunion between Aaron Rodgers and David Bakhtiari would make a lot of sense, especially given the win-now mandate facing Gang Green. Yet this is a group that requires reinforcements in multiple spots, and it isn't prudent to fully trust Rodgers' blind side to a 32-year-old who has played in 13 games the last three seasons due to knee issues. Though he's still finding his way, Fashanu is nimble and has all the pass-protecting traits worth bringing along.
Jim Harbaugh and Greg Roman have made it known they want to ramp up the ground game in Los Angeles right away. The massive and aggressive Fuaga would no doubt be an immediate asset in that effort, helping clear openings for Gus Edwards and any of the Bolts' other backs.
Given that riding things out with Jarrett Stidham seems like a highly questionable move for Sean Payton in Year 2, a quarterback has to be in play either here or the second round. In this case, however, the Broncos stick to the value equation and provide their future starting passer with a significant weapon in Bowers, who should quickly establish himself as a major threat after the catch.
After making a big splash with the signing of defensive tackle Christian Wilkins, general manager Tom Telesco has to prioritize building out the offense in the draft. Latham can step into the void at right tackle left by Jermaine Eluemunor joining the Giants, giving the team a patient yet punishing presence up front.
Perennially committed to winning now above all else, the Saints are due for an upgrade on the interior defensive line even after taking Bryan Bresee in the first round last year. Murphy is extremely difficult for any blocker to keep at bay thanks to his quickness and power, traits that should allow him to be a disruptive force early in his career.
Like Mitchell staying glued to a receiver deep downfield, we've been sticking with this one for a while now. After showing off his skills and well-rounded athleticism at the Senior Bowl and combine, Mitchell has demonstrated he could change the complexion of the Colts' undermanned secondary.
With former Washington offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb taking over the reins to the Seahawks' attack, there's plenty of reason to link Fautanu with Seattle. Beyond the level of familiarity, though, the collegiate left tackle looks ready to become a smooth-moving guard who could help stabilize the Seahawks' front.
Yes, Jacksonville spent a sizable sum to bring on a deep threat in Gabe Davis. But unless the team can also bring back Calvin Ridley, general manager Trent Baalke could find it hard to pass on Thomas, who will be a major matchup problem thanks to his 6-3, 209-pound frame and 4.33-second speed in the 40-yard dash.
Unless the Bengals decide to oblige Tee Higgins' trade request, there's no need to panic at receiver. Measuring in at 6-8 and 340 pounds at the combine, Mims showed himself to be a blocker with singular physical tools. He's the kind of high-upside option the Bengals have to consider as a Jonah Williams replacement at right tackle.
The Rams' choice here might come down to either edge rusher or cornerback. In this scenario, Arnold would stand above the alternatives thanks to his burgeoning skill set and lockdown potential.
The Russell Wilson signing allows Pittsburgh to refocus its offseason on matters more in line with the Steelers' typically priorities. Powers-Johnson can help the offense get back to its rugged roots, as the Rimington Award winner and unanimous All-American relishes tossing opponents out of his way.
Miami lost several key contributors this offseason, but Robert Hunt's departure looms as a particularly problematic hit if not addressed properly. While his frame might portend a move inside, Barton otherwise is a very complete prospect as a polished protector ready to be a starter from Day 1.
Philadelphia hasn't taken a first-round cornerback since Lito Sheppard in 2002, but maybe Howie Roseman is willing to alter his approach after he finally ponied up for a big-money running back with Saquon Barkley. If Roseman does go this route, Wiggins would be a worthy consideration, with the 6-1, 173-pounder displaying the long speed (4.28-second 40-yard dash) to stick with even the most dangerous deep threats.
Losing Jonathan Greenard to the Vikings leaves a sizable hole on DeMeco Ryans' front four opposite Will Anderson Jr., the reigning Defensive Rookie of the Year. You'd be hard-pressed to find a better fit for Ryans' defense than Verse, a relentless rusher who's just as comfortable pushing opposing linemen backward as he is racing past them.
Tyron Smith's impending exit should have Jerry Jones and Co. on edge, as there are no easy patches for losing a mainstay left tackle. Guyton is raw as a blocker, but a 6-8, 322-pound player with his rare movement ability screams blindside protector.
Xavier McKinney checks the safety box and adds plenty of versatility for new coordinator Jeff Hafley's defense. But there's still more room for playmakers on the back end, and DeJean can still stick as a cornerback capable of handling a variety of assignments.
The Buccaneers looked to have avoided an offseason of significant change after re-signing Baker Mayfield and Mike Evans and franchise-tagging Antoine Winfield Jr., but things changed Monday when the team dealt cornerback Carlton Davis to the Detroit Lions. Battle-tested and savvy, McKinstry brings an even-keeled approach to the position that should help him get a quick handle on a starting role.
Even after a handful of early moves in free agency, Arizona is still sorely lacking a difference-maker in its front seven. Robinson showcased his rapid burst and explosiveness at the combine, leaving little question that his superlative athleticism is worth the gamble of a late first-round selection.
Gabe Davis is gone, as are a host of other veterans who were staples of the past few years. Additional firepower is required to keep the offense going, and the electric Mitchell could form a scintillating connection with Josh Allen.
The native of Southfield, Michigan, said at the NFL scouting combine it would be a "dream come true" to be taken by his hometown team. With the Lions adding Marcus Davenport opposite Aidan Hutchinson, Robinson could begin his career as part of a pass-rush rotation and hone his considerable physical tools at a moderate pace.
Eric DeCosta knows value when he sees it, and here he pounces on another draft-day slide. Latu, who was once medically retired due to a neck injury, is ready to make waves from Day 1 thanks to his refined approach, and he'd help new defensive coordinator Zach Orr reload the pass rush after the expected loss of Jadeveon Clowney.
Offensive line has to be a focal point for a 49ers team with aspirations of returning to the Super Bowl stage. Morgan could thrive at guard, though he also has the potential to serve as an eventual successor to Trent Williams, who will turn 36 in July.
Rather than go for broke by trying to bring on a big-play wide receiver, the Chiefs might want to embrace a new identity as an efficient football machine piloted by Patrick Mahomes. With his penchant for breaking free from defensive backs in the short to intermediate range, McConkey would figure to be a high-volume target who could keep Kansas City's offense rolling.